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標題: [時事討論] 經濟學人刊文諷馬英九 [打印本頁]

作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-3-28 10:00 PM 標題: 經濟學人刊文諷馬英九

本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-3-28 10:06 PM 編輯
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經濟學人刊文諷馬英九

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台灣反服貿協議的「太陽花學運」，獲國際傳媒關注，英國《經濟學人》在最新一期出版的雜誌當中，有一篇報道和一篇評論講述太陽花學運，評論文章更以諷刺方式批評總統馬英九不肯承認策略上的錯誤，與對岸的領導人無異，又指馬英九若要在兩岸關係歷史中，成為和平的奠基者，恐怕要失望而回。
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不願承認策略失誤公仔箱論壇+ S: M. d7 R% {: l. Q
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評論文章以《On the antlers of a dilemma》為題，標題上已經針對馬英九在月中口誤把鹿茸當成鹿耳朵的毛之事諷刺一番。文章一起首即表示，馬英九在任總統6年，髮型一直未變，依舊如中共政治局的高官般梳得油油亮亮，「他如同北京的高層般，不願意承認在策略上有錯誤」。

評論說，馬英九希望在兩岸關係中尋找歷史定位，但是並不容易，尤其是他面對著只有9%支持率的超低民望。不過，馬英九在任內亦有做到促進兩岸經濟的功績，例如陸客增長在6年內增加10倍、從無到有的兩岸直航，每日過百班、兩岸貿易額增至1,600億美元等。

文章指，大陸希望以經濟策略「吸收」台灣，讓台灣變成另一個自治區，而不費一兵一卒；不過在馬英九眼中，發展兩岸和平關係卻是抵抗中國侵略的第一條防線，大陸單方面以非和平手法改變兩岸現狀須付出代價。台灣國內實際上亦有許多關於獨立和統一的爭論，「但最終都想維持兩岸關係現狀」。
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歷史留名恐失望而回
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文章又評價，民眾並不信任馬英九與大陸簽署服貿協議，又評價太陽花學運給予馬英九的政治難題，已經超越台灣國內的政治層面。文章引述民進黨人士說，馬英九期待「馬習會」，雖然會議必然會影響國民黨和來屆總統大選選情，不過馬英九始終希望在離任前樹立個人功名。但是，馬英九既想求成，又面對在野黨派和民眾的不信任，注意會陷入兩難，失望而回：

If Mr Ma hoped to leave office with cross-strait relations stabilised, and with his own role as an historic peacemaker recognised on both sides and around the world, he seems likely to be disappointed.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。% b! U" T9 }9 ]2 r% Z. ^

民眾支持學運
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至於在另一篇報道《Manning the trade barriers》當中，則較著眼於太陽花學運對政府和社會的影響，指馬英九民望低迷，亦有更多民眾同情和支持學生佔領立法院的行動。雖然馬英九說過不通過服貿協議將面對嚴重後果，但是仍然說服不到民眾支持通過協議。報道又引用TVBS在3月20至21日的民調，表示只有20%受訪者支持協議。

The Economist : On the antlers of a dilemma
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The ambitions of Ma Ying-jeou, Taiwan’s president, collide with popular suspicion of China

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THE fresh-faced good looks have been lined and drawn by the cares of office. His immaculate English is forsaken for the dignity of immaculate Mandarin. Patient replies to questions come wearily, as if said many times before. Yet, six years into his presidency, Ma Ying-jeou’s hair remains as lush and jet-black as any Chinese Politburo member’s. And,speaking in the presidential palace in Taipei, he remains as unwilling as any leader in Beijing to admit to any fundamental flaws in strategy.www.tvboxnow.com) v( V) X  j- k: d  w. t# z  D6 e9 F
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Perhaps Mr Ma draws inspiration from his portrait of Sun Yat-sen, founder of his ruling party, the Kuomintang (KMT),and, in 1912, of the Republic of China to which Taiwan’s government still owes its name. Sun is revered as a nationalist hero not just by the KMT but, across the Taiwan Strait, by the Chinese Communist Party too. Mr Ma may also hope to be feted on both sides of the strait—in his case as a leader responsible for a historic rapprochement. For now, however, reconciliation between Taiwan and China remains distant. And Mr Ma, once the KMT’s most popular politician, is taunted by opponents as the “9% president”, a reference to his approval ratings in opinion polls last autumn.

Improving relations with China has been the central theme of his administration, after the tensions of eight years of rule by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which leans towards declaring formal independence from the mainland. Mr Ma can boast of 21 agreements signed with China. He reels off the numbers of two fast-integrating economies: a tenfold increase in six years in mainland tourists to Taiwan, to 2.85m in 2013;cross-strait flights from none at all to 118 every day; two-way trade,including with Hong Kong, up to $160 billion a year.$ {3 X0 ]3 `7 k$ r/ e3 k6 Q4 {2 l
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China’s strategy to reabsorb Taiwan is plain.As the island’s economy becomes more intertwined with that of the vast mainland, China thinks, resistance to unification will wane. Then Taiwan becomes an “autonomous” part of China—like Hong Kong, though allowed its own army. Taiwan will return to the motherland without resort to the missiles and increasingly powerful armed forces ranged against it. But as Mr Ma sees it,cross-strait “rapprochement” is a first line of defence against Chinese aggression, since “a unilateral move by the mainland to change the status quo by non-peaceful means would come at a dear price”. Politics in Taiwan is framed as a debate about independence or unification but is really about preserving the status quo.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb( P" X9 T/ x& n: A6 @

The next step in rapprochement with China would be a meeting between political leaders. In February in Nanjing, once the capital of a KMT government of all China, ministers from China and Taiwan held their first formal meeting since 1949. Mr Ma hoped to meet China’s president,Xi Jinping, in Beijing this November, at the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation(APEC) summit. To accommodate Hong Kong and Taiwan, APEC’s members are not“countries” but “economies”. So Mr Xi and Mr Ma could meet as “economic leaders”, sidestepping the tricky protocol that usually dogs relations, with China viewing Taiwan as a mere province. The Chinese demurred. But Mr Ma thinks a meeting somewhere is “not outside the realm of possibility”.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。2 ?3 a6 q; y! U
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This backdrop explains why a protest movement against a services-trade agreement with the mainland is more than a little local difficulty for Mr Ma. Students occupying parliament have resorted to undemocratic means, and many of the arguments they and the DPP make about the trade agreement are specious. But they have tapped a vein of popular mistrust of Mr Ma and of economic integration with the mainland. A split persists between native Taiwanese, on the island for generations, and mainlanders, like Mr Ma, whose families came over as the KMT lost the civil war in the 1940s.Protesters portray Mr Ma as either a mainland stooge or as clueless and out of touch. In the occupied parliament, student caricatures give him antlers, a reference to a slip he once made when he appeared to suggest that the deer-antlers used in Chinese medicine were in fact hair from the animal’s ears.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。0 {: {+ e  }  b/ [$ N4 V8 r

Mr Ma says public opinion supports a “Ma-Xi”summit. Joseph Wu of the DPP, however, claims such a meeting would actually damage the KMT in the next presidential election, due in 2016; rather, he says,Mr Ma is trying to leave a personal legacy. The DPP’s lead in the polls alarms not just the Chinese government but also America, which could do without another flare-up in a dangerous region. The stronger China grows, the more Taiwan’s security depends on commitments from America. It switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing in 1979, but Congress then passed a law obliging it to help Taiwan defend itself.- F3 p% L% h) \$ R' a. d# k
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Mr Ma says relations with America are better than they have ever been at least since 1979 and perhaps before. Others are doubtful. In all the talk of America’s “pivot” to Asia, its promises to Taiwan are rarely mentioned. Many in Taiwan paid attention when John Mearsheimer, an American academic, suggested in the National Interest, a policy journal, that there is “a reasonable chance American policymakers will eventually conclude that it makes good strategic sense to abandon Taiwan and to allow China to coerce it into accepting unification.” For some, abandonment is a fact of life and unification a matter of time. “No one is on our side strategically, diplomatically,politically; we have to count on China’s goodwill,” an academic in Taipei argues.
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。% O" D* Y0 P8 u( u3 ^# @. M* X0 g' K
Mr Ma has tried to steer what seems a sensible middle course between such defeatism and the adventurism of those in the DPP who would like to confront and challenge China. But he sounds weary with the effort, and Taiwan’s people seem weary of him. Their pragmatism and the DPP’s internecine strife may yet see them elect another KMT president in2016. But if Mr Ma hoped to leave office with cross-strait relations stabilised,and with his own role as an historic peacemaker recognised on both sides and around the world, he seems likely to be disappointed.

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