& j; o5 ]3 s. ^# V- V$ t公仔箱論壇假如英國按照在早前的「民調」結果，反對派拿不過45%的選票。因此即使不採取「落閘放狗」的措施，也可以「扮大方」讓蘇格蘭人自己去搞一下也不妨。於是在蘇格蘭的地方選舉，也沒有大規模的介入。! e$ K, H3 N8 ^* T2 W' m. v
* K: K ^7 ?/ b+ H1 ?5 q8 D- M公仔箱論壇而在當初蘇格蘭爭取得到進行獨立公投的時候3，英國佬也「設計了安全措施」。例如法案當中規定的公投資格包括了大量「親英」的原素，尤其是「按在蘇格蘭的居留權」來界定，可以公投的選民包括了： 6 R( q8 N# g, E, m1 }0 O" {* ytvb now,tvbnow,bttvb1. 居住在蘇格蘭的英國公民www.tvboxnow.com- o: I! _* O6 k; U
2. 居住在蘇格蘭的52個英聯邦國家公司 & {+ p4 C4 g7 `( N( p- F3. 居住在蘇格蘭的歐盟27國公民 4 ^2 e w# {' f" D. S# C" }- _4. 居住在蘇格蘭的英國上議院議員tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb6 C* ^% @* f4 h" t {- A& s2 m. V6 s
5. 居住在蘇格蘭的英國駐軍 + m0 g0 P2 _$ [3 G0 J% g( [- Q因此反觀梁振英謂「香港沒有國藉的人也可以投票是例外」，這個講法，明顯是「發雞盲」。蘇格蘭就是只按「居留權」來界定投票資格，這個和香港的確是法律相通、一脈相承。 4 P2 f( \- P7 _$ G p' mTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。: x* [6 E) i# G7 e4 u7 y+ }
之不過，所謂「眼大睇過龍」就是這種情況。英國按以上的「居留權」來篩選，獨立派的票源原本也不超過45%。這是2013年底的數據。之不過同時「非常陰毒」的反對派策劃了「降低投票年齡」，由18改為16歲！這就解釋了為何在幾個月之內，「民意」會「過界」。因為民調先前也已指出：傾向獨立的群組，主要集中在「低收入、低學歷、婦女」部份，換句話：弱勢社群。那麼蘇格蘭的年輕人屬於那個群組？ 一眼就應該看得通吧？ ; N: d) |( |. F# j' p : P# J& A+ X3 D因此在計入年輕人的意向之後：金翅大鑊鳥。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。& F" o+ p! J5 O( T2 |
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目前英國仍在亡羊補牢之中。其中一招，就是盡量發動退休人仕（一般沒有表態）出來投票，並且以「反動亂、保福利」作為籌碼。真狼狽。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb" F* e3 J0 ]$ ]& L. n& ~3 ^- ]
但正如文首提及，到底「中國因素」在這個時候發生了什麼作用？ ) e8 b/ @0 H( R. G. v2 _tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb第一， 為什麼卡梅倫政府又發出通告，謂支持北京發表政改決定，又呼籲香港的大中華膠繼續第二輪諮詢？ / j* @" V" p' ^3 jtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb第二， 李克強之前6月去英國訪問，為什麼商務問題又要「強行拜訪」英女皇？ 7 d% ?8 D& \0 F第三， 蘇格蘭的蘇中商會又無獨有偶地在同月出訪中國，談「促進貿易」。 - W6 p# _9 u$ I" Wtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb第四， 而正正就是2013年年底，蘇格蘭首席部長薩蒙德任內第四次出訪中國，也是談貿易。公仔箱論壇# i# g- t9 p6 q+ D- ?8 Z D' L; f7 g
第五， 同年6月，蘇格蘭議會對外關係委員會舉行了一次關於愛丁堡對華策略的專門聽證會：聽證會認為，在貿易會談中提及中國人權問題只會「極之適得其反」。* A: q& M6 D4 ^, L1 R
$ Q2 s4 z- m8 L% u/ _公仔箱論壇巧合嗎？很簡單了吧：因應蘇格蘭對英國的「安全」問題，中國的功夫做得十足十。「強行拜訪英女皇」之後，李克強對英政府的發言是：我們歡迎一個強盛、繁榮以及統一的英國。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb$ b- [ c1 ]: t
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換言之，中國在「蘇格蘭公投」一事上，大打「分裂」牌，而且「有錢」可以為蘇格蘭獨立「包底」。起碼在姿態上是這樣，而且英國和蘇格蘭也分別「真心膠」地信到十足十。要是蘇格蘭談人權問題，那就要為獨立冒險，中國生意隨時做不成。相反，口頭上是很支持英國維持統一，但最好「老老實實做生意」，別來談香港的事。也又很明顯，是否支持蘇格蘭獨立這張牌，可以「大」得到英國首相卡梅倫。; l. \, K+ o: G, d
* L2 P% x# |; A$ }) p! i. J' ?公仔箱論壇因此到底「英國」想怎樣的問題，其實香港的因素極少。反而因為香港政改影射蘇格蘭公投，或者反過來蘇格蘭公投影射香港，這個才是大問題。而彭定康吃過中國的大虧，當然和卡梅倫過不去！那只是英國執政保守黨的內部矛盾，而且重點是蘇格蘭而不是香港。 6 q5 t% d! H/ Q1 ]! _4 C公仔箱論壇TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。# B* h0 O; k3 W* G$ L2 N
因此中國對香港的民主訴求之所以如坐針氈，正正就是香港和蘇格蘭一樣，替宗主國帶來極大的麻煩；北京不急如鍋上的螞蟻才怪。因此先前我寫《為什麼中共怕佔中》的時候，都講得清楚，實在香港對中國的重要性如何，正正和蘇格蘭對英國一樣。真正的麻煩不是宗主國有沒有能力動粗把它剷平，而是要考慮「剷平」的後果。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb: M, h1 A. z/ A: K) V$ h3 B" x
5 P% x1 s: @: D& W1 N; ~8 N. V香港對中國的經濟影響，肯定比蘇格蘭對英國的影響要大得多。先前的文章已寫過了。這裡可以進一步補充一點：中國來自國外的直接投資，香港佔了七成以上！公仔箱論壇- V" A( H4 P q( i9 f& Q
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那不是坊間流言，是中華人民共和國商務部2014年7月的統計數據。香港在2014年1至5月的總投資接近340億美元，比起第二位的台灣22.8億美元，總量大十倍以上。香港在全中國外來投資的佔比是70%。www.tvboxnow.com0 y( H1 S& B8 d2 ]
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這個簡直不能用「南水北調」來形容，直頭是「單一最大外資來源」！ S- ]" E" @. I4 A, I2 K公仔箱論壇 9 w7 |2 f1 b$ G& w4 P2 }/ v其實過去香港都一直是中國的外來投資主要來源地。這點是無可爭議的，不信的話，隨便你找資料。而先前也提過，中國面對經濟轉型的挑戰，唯一的出路是「金融」。因此「佔中」的威脅如斯猛烈，正正就是「要害」嘛。 # |) h4 t# W; G; S. J. w1 R" c公仔箱論壇7 b4 P2 h! Y4 D+ U$ i% m5 p
蘇格蘭目前的情況非常有參考價值：民意背向實在可以令宗主國非常被動，看你是否懂得玩。而且另一個更有趣的情況是：一個宗主國即使強如大英帝國，也有出問題的一日，就算你可以推行國教三百年，勉強就是不會有好結果。www.tvboxnow.com' i) k6 s( s. k+ U! w
the Scottish Independence Referendum Bill。英國在2013年12月通過
作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-9-9 02:23 PM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-9-9 02:29 PM 編輯 4 ]2 M9 Y# P) E: o# c/ ITVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。公仔箱論壇* S+ _$ ~2 J8 D8 ]
Harold James : Should Scotland Leave the Pound Zone? ( i% a# r* z7 T% R6 _tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb. F E2 |3 Y& G4 p) W
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PRINCETON –As Scotland prepares for this month’s referendum on independence, the United Kingdom – indeed, all of Europe – must brace itself for the impact of a successful bid. Scottish independence would revolutionize the British and European constitutional frameworks, and give a tremendous boost to other European separatist movements, from Catalonia to northern Italy. The economic impact of independence, however, is far less certain. ! z6 g1 O/ Q6 H) j1 G/ L公仔箱論壇 ) v0 S! u6 |! O) ?+ n) \! ~& UAdvocates of independence have long insisted that they are motivated primarily by the distinctiveness of Scottish identity. But Scotland’s history and traditions,while undoubtedly its own, have been shaped by centuries of interaction with England and other parts of the British Isles. # ^4 Q) Z8 d9 p; E; k0 o; pThe more immediate issue for Scots is money. The question of whether an independent Scotland could or should continue to use the British pound has dominated discussions over the last few months of the referendum campaign. The outcome –for Scotland, the UK, and Europe – could vary widely, depending on which path Scotland chooses. 7 W5 P# i4 x( V3 D7 qwww.tvboxnow.comwww.tvboxnow.com. [/ @; z7 L2 Z
So far,Scottish nationalists have insisted that an independent Scotland would retain the pound. But, given how much easier it would be to make the case for a separate currency – not to mention the fact that Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne has explicitly rejected Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond’s proposed currency union – such declarations amount to an own goal.7 T% v! S& R$ n
" P) a/ m8 F8 R; rwww.tvboxnow.comThe problem with the Scottish nationalists’ vision is a mirror image of the eurozone’s main shortcoming. Given that a single currency cannot function without a common monetary policy, and that economic conditions across the currency union differ,individual members will, at times, be subject to unsuitable policies.公仔箱論壇' p* s( _. }8 z1 f0 @
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( C% L, z# L1 z9 L
For example,during the construction boom of the 2000s, Ireland and Spain should have had tighter monetary conditions, higher interest rates, and lower loan/asset ratios. But their eurozone membership meant that government and private-sector borrowers alike benefited from very low interest rates. After the financial crisis erupted, and policymakers began seeking ways to compel banks to revive lending in these and other struggling countries, it became apparent that there were no available tools to employ. 8 Q' F' t j( t! c8 D( Y& u1 y . X) v4 j1 z; X2 R- T7 m7 SToday, the UK faces a similar dilemma. The property boom in the London area demands tighter monetary conditions. But higher rates would wreak economic havoc on the rest of the country, where the recovery remains anemic.* N( c) h: T; @9 }; S- I5 P+ l5 q
( R$ |; \, V+ wwww.tvboxnow.comMoreover,like Germany, London maintains a huge current-account surplus (8% of GDP) – a potentially serious problem, given the deflationary effect that Germany’s surplus has had on the rest of the eurozone. Already, the rest of the UK runs an external deficit that is higher than that of any industrialized country.+ h0 `7 K- }5 w. E+ y
% p& N/ f$ z+ o1 G" kTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。The behavior of a currency can be driven by one powerful and preeminent sector of the economy; in the pound’s case, it is the financial sector. Some viewed the pound’s rapid decline in 2007 and 2008 – a 30% depreciation in trade-weighted terms – as a much-needed economic stimulus, given the boost that it implied for export competitiveness. The UK’s independent monetary policy provided it with a level of flexibility that the eurozone economies lacked. TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。, R4 `( b$ a7 v( t) s
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But the revival of confidence in the financial sector has caused the pound to rebound sharply (by 18%since the end of 2008), eroding the UK’s competitiveness gain. What is good for the City of London is not necessarily good for the rest of the economy. 7 u5 Y- H" e5 F5 r5 [4 Ewww.tvboxnow.comTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。) M! F: ?* K! i% p/ ?3 n" x) a
There is thus an unmistakable appeal in escaping an economic arrangement that shackles Scotland to London – an appeal that the great Scottish economist Adam Smith would have recognized. Indeed, his most influential work, The Wealth of Nations, was motivated by the belief that the interests of the London merchant community were distorting British commercial policy. ! y+ }* L+ {4 \1 F, U- D7 j公仔箱論壇 + \ ? n C( g# z: UThe alternative to retaining the pound, however, presents its own challenges.According to the Scottish economist Ronald MacDonald, an independent Scotland should have its own currency,which would behave like a petro-currency, owing to the economy’s dependence on North Sea gas and oil. ( Q! O6 j8 C9 g3 g
7 J, Y2 g& q, N0 G% `% N8 P! nBut replacing one dominant sector with another is probably not good for the rest of the Scottish economy, which would lose competitiveness whenever surging energy prices pushed up the exchange rate. As less competitive industries were driven into loss and insolvency, economic activity would become even more concentrated and specialized., ^- l6 X. q. S$ }3 W
" m4 c$ g' x2 [' S! cPlacing the burden of adjustment on the exchange rate is not the answer. The small, open economies of Switzerland and Norway – important models for Scotland – struggled with sharp currency appreciation during the global financial crisis. For Switzerland, the solution was to implement a ceiling on the franc’s exchange rate against the euro. 2 q5 a7 |7 [6 M2 P; h' g6 v2 ] 5 [& }" Q! {* K: c+ j' I7 @+ cThis should inspire Scotland to pursue association with a larger currency area and a more diversified economy. How about adopting the euro?TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。. L0 l T& i* M9 q- @2 Q( n. a! k4 w
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) K+ H# P7 @3 P/ ]( H0 m" ~4 }TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University, Professor of History at the European University Institute, Florence, and a senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation. A specialist on German economic history and on globalization, he is the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle, Krupp: A History of the Legendary German Firm,and Making the European Monetary Union. 3 k6 P5 y( m, O/ c$ W' MTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 * a4 _: |/ m; I; Rwww.tvboxnow.com作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-9-11 10:42 PM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-9-11 10:49 PM 編輯 - x5 H, u2 e( p6 b- G. s
0 B7 N6 Y8 b2 K. `" sTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。The Economist: UK RIP ? ; H5 G4 r0 x1 ] c: t oTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb. t0 u; _' I1 y' K; e Ditching the union would be a mistake for Scotland and a tragedy for the country it leaves behind公仔箱論壇6 z0 K4 s- K$ Z$ H. i; B! S
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SCHOOL CHILDREN once imagined their place in the world, with its complex networks and allegiances, by writing elaborate postal addresses. British youngsters began with their street and town (London or Manchester, Edinburgh or Cardiff),followed by England, Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland; then came the United Kingdom (and after that Europe, the World, the Universe…). They understood that the UK, and all its collective trials and achievements—the industrial revolution, the Empire, victory over the Nazis, the welfare state—were as much a part of their patrimony as the Scottish Highlands or English cricket. They knew, instinctively, that these concentric rings of identity were complementary, not opposed.. U1 r- N8 g% R' F+ Z) f6 [
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At least,they used to. After the referendum on Scottish independence on September 18th,one of those layers—the UK—may cease to exist, at least in the form recognisable since the Act of Union three centuries ago. As the vote nears,Scotland’s nationalists have caught up with the unionist No camp in the opinion polls, and even edged ahead (see article). More and more Scots are deciding that the UK, which their soldiers, statesmen,philosophers and businessmen have done so much to build and ornament, does not cradle their Scottishness but smothers it. This great multinational state could be undone in a single day, by a poll in which just 7% of its citizens will participate. That outcome, once unthinkable, would be bad for Scotland and tragic for what remained of the UK. & x) z5 s: d; O: I+ O( D3 V# B& D, i7 `TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。. l( i# H: P( k1 m
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The damage a split would dowww.tvboxnow.com' ?7 G5 Y2 h. d
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The rump of Britain would be diminished in every international forum: why should anyone heed a country whose own people shun it? Since Britain broadly stands for free trade and the maintenance of international order, this would be bad for the world. Its status as a nuclear power would be doubtful: the country’s nuclear submarines are based in a Scottish loch and could not be moved quickly. Britain would also be more likely to leave the European Union, since Scots are better disposed to Europe than are the English (and are less likely to vote for the Conservatives, who are promising a Euro-referendum if they win next year’s general election). The prospect of a British exit from the EU would scare investors much more than a possible Scottish exit from Britain (see article). & q1 ?- o; @& v/ Q8 F' `) |3 C2 ?公仔箱論壇 7 U6 W% I( V* z0 u* qThe people of Scotland alone will decide the future of Britain, and they are not obliged to worry about what becomes of the state they would leave. But—perhaps not surprisingly, given the endurance and success of the union, imperilled though it is—Scots’ own interests, and the rest of Britain’s, coincide. 3 H' q% J7 u6 H! u8 w. `- o- n公仔箱論壇 # t+ Y# ^3 `! F* q9 _At the heart of the nationalist campaign is the claim that Scotland would be a more prosperous and more equal country if it went solo. It is rich in oil and inherently decent, say the nationalists, but impoverished by a government in Westminster that has also imposed callous policies. They blame successive British governments for almost every ill that has befallen Scotland, from the decline of manufacturing industry to ill-health to the high price of sending parcels in the Highlands. Alex Salmond, Scotland’s nationalist leader, is broad in his recrimination: Labour and the Tories are of a piece, he suggests, in their disregard for Scotland. : u* f$ X) [% d( z8 s& f, ]% \tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 6 j6 T& k. s3 J" ]6 WBut Scotland’s relative economic decline is the result not of southern neglect but of the shift of manufacturing and shipping to Asia. If Westminster has not reversed all the deleterious effects of globalisation and technology, that is because to do so is impossible. The nationalists know this, which is why, sotto voce, they would continue many of Westminster’s policies. Instead they make much of minor adjustments, such as abolishing the “bedroom tax”, a recent measure designed to nudge people out of too-large social housing. To break up a country over such small, recent annoyances would be nuts.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。) R N M" v" S# M t3 r/ V- s
" S$ ^6 |4 O! R) s# t5 ]3 n公仔箱論壇The nationalists’ economics are also flawed. Scotland would not, in fact, be richer alone. The taxes that would flow to it from the North Sea would roughly compensate for the extra cost of its lavish state, which would no longer be funded by Westminster (last year spending was some £1,300 per person higher in Scotland than elsewhere in Britain). But oil revenues are erratic. They would have earned Scotland £11.5 billion in 2008-09 but only £5.5 billion in 2012-13.If an independent state were to smooth these fluctuations by setting up an oil fund, it would have less cash to spend now. In any case, the oil is gradually running out. In order to maintain state spending after it is gone, taxes would have to rise. And a crunch might come much sooner. Foreign investors and big businesses that mostly serve English customers could well move south.www.tvboxnow.com& b3 j( a6 ^1 f! f. o- z( P
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Westminster has ruled out a currency union (see article)—correctly,given that the nationalists propose a deficit-widening fiscal splurge and that the assets of Scottish banks are an alarming 12 times the country’s GDP. It might relent, but only if Scotland agrees to such strict oversight that independence ends up meaning little. The nationalists say that kinks over currency and the like could be worked out amicably—that it would not be in Britain’s interests to antagonise its new northern neighbour, particularly since (they hint darkly) Scotland could refuse to take on its share of the national debt. They are far too sanguine. If Scotland goes, the rest of Britain will be furious, both at the Scots and at their own leaders, who will be impelled to drive a hard bargain. 7 c R- H$ X1 K/ X2 \" }公仔箱論壇; g6 ]) d/ g& I: Z6 i4 f" x
Mr Salmond is on stronger ground when he argues that if Scotland does not leave Britain it might be dragged out of the EU against its will. This is indeed a danger, but in going independent Scotland would swap the possibility of an EU exit for a certain future as a small, vulnerable country. Its best hope of remaining influential is to stay put, and fight the Eurosceptics. " ?6 I+ m Z% `8 E' FTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。公仔箱論壇' v q [: K# G1 z* t
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A lot to loseTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5 C( s3 |6 m' \* U2 a" ^7 `* W) V7 ]
" _; u8 U# h' i4 l) aIn the end the referendum will turn not on calculations of taxes and oil revenue, but on identity and power. The idea that Scots can shape their own destiny, both at the referendum and afterwards, is exhilarating. Yet Scotland already controls many of its own affairs (even if Mr Salmond’s Scottish National Party, which runs the devolved government and is driving the Yes campaign, has not done much with its powers so far). Moreover, as Westminster politicians of all stripes have hastily made clear, if Scotland votes No, the devolved administration will soon get so much clout that the practical difference between staying in the union and leaving it will narrow. That would also lead to the distribution of power away from Westminster and to other bits of Britain, which should have happened long ago. 6 h# H4 h c0 k7 Zwww.tvboxnow.com6 b8 D" t( y7 B. b* x0 M. x8 f
So by staying in, Scots will not just save the union but enhance it, as they have for300 years. For the UK, with all its triumphs and eccentricities, belongs to Scots as much as it does to the English—even if increasing numbers of them seem ready to disown that glorious, hard-earned heritage, and to simplify their identities by stripping out one of those concentric rings. That goes against both the spirit of this fluid century—in which most people have multiple identities, whether of place, ethnicity or religion—and the evidence of the preceding three. For all its tensions and rivalries, and sometimes because of them, the history of the union shows that the Scots, Welsh, English and Northern Irish are stronger, more tolerant and more imaginative together than they would be apart. F" ]+ h; _1 d5 s* @+ t4 Y7 Z公仔箱論壇 , V* }- Z5 K stvb now,tvbnow,bttvb作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-9-12 06:57 AM
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TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。# L$ a1 _# [3 q1 h
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